Is the end nigh for Lance?

Many years ago I remember watching an alpine stage in the Tour de France and literally not able to believe my own eyes, Lance pulling away from an exhausted and beaten pack yet again, obliterating the world's best climbers on his way to another stage victory in the mountains. It wasn't just that he could do this, it was that he hardly broke sweat or looked under any pressure, and could do it again the next day, and year after year. It just didn't seem to add up.

Reading David Walsh's excellent book From Lance to Landis a couple of years ago confirmed my own suspicions (and I know this book changed your mind too, Tom). Apart from anything else, there were first-hand accounts of Armstrong confessing to substance abuse while he was in cancer treatment. He has since taken steps to silence those who went on the record in this book, including his Irish former soigneur, Emma O'Reilly (her side of the story here, "if my word is so worthless, why did Lance’s legal team feel the need to go to the High Court the morning of my testimony for the above case so they could sit in on it?"). He subsequently went from being an average peleton rider to (as we all know) an precendented seven time Tour winner.

Fast-forward to the present day and "the United States Anti-Doping Agency has officially charged Lance Armstrong with a violation, accusing him of doping during most of his cycling career and participating in a doping conspiracy" (full article in NY Times here). It seems they can prove he doped, and plan to strip him of his Tour victories (he hardly rode anything else remember).

I just did a bit of research to see who came second in those seven Tours, that is who would retrospectively be awarded the wins. The Swiss Alex Zulle was second in 1999, with Jan Ullrich second in the next two. Then we had Joseba Beloki in '02, Ullrich again in '03, Andreas Kloden in '04, and finally Ivan Basso in '05. Floyd Landis won the '06 Tour, but was since disqualified and the win awarded to Oscar Pereiro. Landis, Basso, and Ullrich have never (as far as I know) confessed to talking performance-enhancing drugs.

So, let's imagine Armstrong is found guilty and stripped of his victories. This would see Ullrich - a convicted drug cheat - awarded three Tour wins. Ullrich himself came third in '05, but was subsequently disqualified that year, and amazingly his placings in previous years still stand. Ivan Basso - another drug cheat - would be awarded the 2005 Tour. Basso was banned from racing in 2007 for two years. If nothing else, you have to wonder how anyone could possibly be good enough to consistently and comprehensively beat those performance-enhanced cheats?

There are two Irishmen competing is this year's Tour (Dan Martin was 8th in Sunday's stage, with Nicholas Roche 7th today) but the rot is deep, and it continues to put a stain on this awesome race. Print this post