First - Kidney has picked a team to lose. It is a team picked to defend not attack, to keep the margin of defeat down. A team picked on reputation over form. A predictable team. A winning team would have players picked in each position on form, yet Mike Ross, Leo Cullen, Bob Casey, Keith Earls aren't even on the bench. Why not try a Stringer-Sexton combination? Why not Fitzgerald at full back (when was the last time you saw Kearney pass to a team-mate outside his 22?)? Why not Toner to target the NZ lineout, their only 'weakness'?
Second - confidence and mindset. They just don't have the belief to win. You can face down the haka all you want, but you have to follow up in the early collisions. They will lose because, like me, they are afraid and have already lost in their minds.
But I will still watch in hope...,